Power, money and Fame Vs. Business, politics and war

Business, Politics and War 

Power, Fame and Money

 

In this triplet duo, the man who aspires to control all three is meant for certain destruction.

You have to choose – Politics and War / Politics and Business / War and business

Similarly, Power and fame / Money and Fame / Power and Money

 

The funny thing is if you choose to control all three in any of the two categories – you shall be hunted and destroyed by the those who don’t have the ambition  aspire for even one of those elements.

History has taught us that again and again and again. Learn from historyor sadly relive it.
Be careful what you wish for.

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Why do Indian startups have lower valuations and what to do about that?

They are lower. But thats the market . The market sets the price. More demand and more risk mitigations ( all kinds of risks ) will increase valuations. In order to play the fundraising market , you need to understand the PE / VC dynamics and LP- GP dynamics like the back of your hand. Most people would advice you to just focus on the business and not learn all this useless finance stuff, but I tell you this IS business. 

So lets look at the dynamics involved in the valuation:

1. DCF ( even though, this is applicable for Series B + startups only )

2. Expected increase in valuation on return just in terms of IRR

3. Tangible and intangible perceptions about your country of operation and thus your currency / how susceptible it is to FOREX risks (  if most LP money is USD based. If the LP money is INR based, you sure as hell are not going to get high enough valuations even if these LPs are agnostic to dollar fluctuations)

In a startup, you are always up against time, constantly running a race and much like dating, you should build a pipeline of large viable candidates who will be interested in your value proposition and qualify / disqualify them quickly based on their interest levels, move on, Close a few potential second dates, negotiate and enter a relationship with usually, one, sometimes two.

But prior building the pipeline, look at this decision tree

1. Do you want to go global somewhere down the line? 
Ask this very early irrespective of how guilty they make you feel for thinking scale when you are just a 3 person team.

If no, then you are stuck with INR money from INR based valuations. The road ends here for you wrt commanding higher valuations and options. But you can still make a successful business with good returns all INR based. The bad news is beyond Angel and Series A stage , most of the money that comes in is USD based and hence very susceptible to Forex risk and thus decreases your probability of successively raising more and more rounds. 

2. If yes, then most startups consider moving abroad to HQ.
Where? This depends on so many factors and I am sure your lawyer, rather than me,  will do a better job of explaining this to you.

3. Move and then build a pipeline. Pipeline of investors as early as Series A, who have USD money and invest in you with a global perspective so as to make you competitive( valuation wise) when you eventually list in an IPO amongst your US based competition.

This is a very simplified decision tree. But there are so many operational factors you should consider before projecting global ambitions.

Most important thing for you to remember is, you need to know the market like the back of your hand. 
Past trends, similar business models, listed market comparables, valuation multiples, what those multiples are based on, which geography commands how much, where the markets are shifting, the 5- 10 – 15 year  perspectives of your industry. 

You see, the average generic investor, will never ever know the market as intimately as a startup CEO should, unless they know a well entrenched entrepreneur, in the same market segment and industry , on whose first hand counsel they can rely on. Consultants, advisors, etc don’t know the front end battles of a market and always go on hearsay and anecdotal evidence from entrepreneurs in the industry.

So dont take it personally and argue, when an investor says the valuation is too high and you believe that you are priced competitively. Just nod politely, move on and close the deal with the others who agree that you know the market better than they do. After all, lofty and unachievable valuations affect the company’s future prospects as much as it does the investor’s  personal interests. A good CEO understands this.

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They, who believe

It is they who make me wake up and run faster every day towards the goal-post.
It is they, who are the true leaders.

They, who join our journey, in this unproven startup.
They , who offer to invest their cold hard cash earned with sweat and blood , in a shared little dream by an unknown startup.

They, who forget the scorching sun, to install a power plant because we committed on a far closer timeline than we should have.

They, who offer to come work on weekends, saturday and Sundays for a pittance of what they would have earned for their qualifications outside.

They, who live 50 Kms away, but stay to finish the job at hand on a late friday night or stay back till 2300 hrs on a saturday night to power through the meetings.

It is not the payout/exit, that keeps me going on, in the difficult days.

It is they.

They, who believe.

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Curing fear

Have you seen 108 degree celsius of steaming oil bellowing out of a fuel pump shooting out at above 20 feet in the air , all in the middle of the Atlantic Ocean? 

It is a divine sight.

It makes you think that you all is doomed. It makes you feel fear knot up in your stomach. It makes you feel that the ship is going to sink, imminently. 

But then , something amazing happens. You start to focus and think that you need to get your ass moving, lest it would become too late. You focus on the first thing at hand. All alone in the Engine Room.  

Training kicks in. Yes. Sound the alarm. Slow down the M/E. Stop the fuel pumps. etc. etc.

Six months later you sign off. Heading back home. 

Imperceptible, but you have changed. Hardened. You have a confidence about you that you can handle things. That you have matured , much more so than your peers. You can handle almost anything. It’s a good feeling.

It cures fear. Fear of uncertainty. Fear of responsibility. Fear of imminent danger.

Shipping. For that, I will always be grateful.

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Startup Decision making

Most, if not, every decision in a startup has to be made in the midst of uncertainty.

If you are introducing a service in a market, especially with a go-to-market strategy that has not been tested before, its going to be doubly difficult. You haven’t figured anything out yet. You don’t which channels will work , if they will work at all. You don’t which segment of the market will be receptive to your service offerings , if any at all will be. 

There is never any perfect solution to startup decision making. You just have to pick one and move forward sometimes – Hard ,cold  Data-based , not “common sense” based or “widely-accepted” based but pure data based. But at many other times, you have to pick a decision much in contrary to data, by gut. The difficult part is to know which to choose when. And I believe decision making IQ i.e. knowing whether to pursue a data driven decision or a gut-based decision comes through two things :-

1. Having a vision of how your service / product will change the world in the next 10 years or so.

2. Having a deep – vertical and horizontal knowledge, inside and out of what is happening in your industry, your market , in your geography and across the world, both at the center and at the edges of the industry. Technology cycles, political patterns and vested interests and historical patterns of your specific industry across the world and how they have morphed. 

To put it simply, its like Keysi. 

In Keysi, you train some moves with or without shadow opponents, day-in and day-out, study various opponents moves and other fighting styles vigorously and if it so happens, that you end up in a bar-fight, your body moves intuitively. 

That is how you should train the mind to make decisions – either fact-based or gut based as times dictate. But at either times, it should become intuitive to a leader or a fighter.

Because starting up and winning is not very unlike a bar-fight.

 

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Wealth creation, retention and its patterns

A startup will always be hard. Very hard. Sometimes the sole focus. If you don’t have the stomach for it, nothing wrong with it. Just know that you will not have as much  time / room as you want for :

1. Family

2. Hobby

3. Anything at all actually, except your startup

This will be the way for the first 5 – 7 years.

Anybody who tells you that you can have it all- both the amazing family and the amazing fast growing ever expanding company  , is bull-shitting. You can’t. You have to choose. If its going to be me who will hand the red pill to you, then so be it. But don’t believe anybody who tells you anything else.

Building a billion dollar company in 7- 10 years is not only cool (sic, Sean parker) . Its very very hard. Its damn near inhuman and uncompromising that you will work on all days and at least 10 hrs a day.

Building a billion dollar enterprise over a 30 year time span is entirely different in that you can afford to spend 5- 7 hour work days  over 6 day work weeks. But only if the industry dynamics don’t change ever so often , like mining or shipping or steel or Agriculture ( although that’s changing now ) , retail (?) (oops)

So the matrix is that intelligent work is taken for granted in building companies but lets look at Hard / Leisure work vs High growth/Slow growth industries – in order to build an enterprise value of $1B

Hard work / High growth Industry – 7 to 10 years

Leisure / High growth industry – dead

Hard work / Slow growth industry  – 30 years

Leisure work / Slow growth industry – Lifestyle Business

Obviously, the safe bet is to be in a slow growth industry where the dynamics don’t change as fast. This is why old money is hard to lose. Take David Rockefeller. That old bastard is the fourth generation and still has assets worth $2.8 B.

Whereas tech billionaires are like fruit-flies. One is born everyday and one dies everyday.  Tech billionaires have the fast life, its like running hurdle jumping on a treadmill at 20 mph.

Its certainly dangerous but thats also where all the fun is.

At the grid. At the edge, where changing something means tilting the balance of an industry’s economy or changing the face of how people communicate or determining how an entire country will consume energy in the future.

I wouldn’t trade that for any fortune.

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Memories in sunlight

I rarely click photographs. I am not a great fan. I like memories though.

Because they age alongside you and convey emotions subjective to your life. They are fun to look back on. And they are like a little secret that you alone would know and no one else would and give you an inner smile when you look back on that specific memory.

I’d take in memories anyday, over photographs.

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Partners in crime

To partner with a startup or a relatively established company is a substantial risk, but there is also a reward ( mostly ) greater than market rewards.

To find partners, partner with hungry upstarts who are looking to crack the big leagues by coming into their own, by accepting risks that incumbents won’t accept.  The incumbents will only accept you once the risks have been mitigated .

So find an upstart and a hungry investment bank, someone in the same league as yours and someone who is looking for a break. Any break. To make it into the big league alongside you.

Fuck the safety riders and the incumbent’s suck ups

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Work life balance in a startup

Work – life balance is in itself an oxymoron.

It means that you don’t value your work enough to call it as a part of your life or you don’t value life enough to do work that makes you feel alive.

Either way, you need to stop what you are doing and find your obsession, your purpose, your meaning. That one thing, which will make you say, ” If I were to die in a flight crash tomorrow, I would still do what am going to do today and be happy about it.” 

 

 

 

 

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But why Solar?

Met an industry person.

He seemed bewildered I chose Solar coming from Marine and Shipping. He asks ” Why? But why?”

Seemed just as bewildered when I told him that I have a deep seated desire to “extend the runway for humanity” to enable mankind to live beyond what they would have surviving on non-renewables and thus create more opportunities for us to evolve into well…just better men.

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